Climate‑related changes can shape the long‑term health of the population, and this in turn affects many areas of public sector planning.
The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) supports this work by providing advice grounded in demographic and health analysis across pensions, social security, climate risk, and health and social care.
Climate‑related factors may influence health through a range of direct and indirect pathways, such as heat exposure, extreme weather events, economic impacts or changes in access to services. Over time, these may contribute to changes in morbidity, mortality and demographic patterns. Understanding these relationships can help inform long‑term risk analysis across public sector work.
To support this, GAD has established an internal climate and health group. It brings together expertise from across the department to strengthen how climate‑related evidence is considered in health and demographic analysis.
Why we brought capabilities together
Climate‑related health impacts intersect with multiple areas of GAD’s advisory work.
Addressing these interactions requires drawing on a range of skills, including climate scenario analysis, demographic and mortality modelling, health and social care system knowledge, and long‑term financial risk analysis.
The group brings these capabilities together to support consistent, well‑evidenced assessments of links between climate and health in GAD’s advice.
The group's objectives include:
- supporting analysis of potential links between climate and health across different sectors
- helping develop approaches to using climate and health scenarios in long‑term modelling
- contributing to the evidence base that underpins modelling and risk assessments
- considering how insights may inform long‑term public sector planning
What we are developing
Initial work focuses on practical resources that can be incorporated into advice and modelling, including:
- a map of key pathways linking climate and health, drawing on published literature (as introduced in our earlier blog: Climate change and health)
- guidance on the use of climate and health scenarios in long‑term risk analysis
- engagement with stakeholders and academic experts to support evidence development
What this means for GAD's clients
By bringing relevant expertise together, we aim to support clients to:
- incorporate climate‑related health uncertainty into long‑term risk analysis across areas such as pensions, social security and fiscal sustainability
- draw on well‑supported evidence when considering climate scenarios
- explore potential implications for future demand and affordability within health and social care
Organisations interested in this work are welcome to contact us at climate.change@gad.gov.uk.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are the author’s own and the opinions in this blog post are not intended to provide specific advice. For our full disclaimer, please see the About this blog page.
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